What EIA Confirmed
EIA's September 1 analysis says Golden Pass began exporting LNG in April 2026. Train 1 is expected to continue ramping through the end of 2026 and has 0.7 Bcf/d of nominal capacity. EIA expects Train 2 to begin exports in late 2026.
This replaces the earlier timing and capacity assumptions on this page. A start date, a train's nominal capacity, and its observed feedgas draw are different facts; the nominal number should not be treated as a constant daily demand value.
The National LNG Export Path
EIA estimates that U.S. LNG exports averaged 17.4 Bcf/d in the first half of 2026, 23% above the same period in 2025. Alongside Golden Pass, EIA points to full-capacity operations at Plaquemines and continuing commissioning at Corpus Christi Stage 3 as drivers of the increase.
| Period | U.S. LNG Exports | Evidence Type | Comparison |
|---|---|---|---|
| First half 2026 | 17.4 Bcf/d | EIA estimate of reported exports | 23% above first-half 2025 |
| Second half 2026 | 17.3 Bcf/d | EIA STEO estimate | 0.6% below first-half 2026 (KilowattLogic calculation) |
| First half 2027 | 18.7 Bcf/d | EIA STEO estimate | 7.5% above first-half 2026 (KilowattLogic calculation) |
Calculation note: `(17.3 - 17.4) / 17.4 = -0.6%` and `(18.7 - 17.4) / 17.4 = +7.5%`, rounded to one decimal place. The underlying 17.3 and 18.7 Bcf/d values are EIA STEO estimates, not realized exports.
What Commercial Buyers Should Review
- Separate utilization from nameplate: ask whether a supplier's gas view assumes nominal terminal capacity or observed feedgas demand.
- Stress-test Gulf Coast basis: compare fixed-price, Henry Hub index, and basis-plus structures under higher and lower export utilization.
- Keep storage in the same model: expanding LNG demand is only one side of the balance; production, power burn, weather, and regional inventories can offset or amplify it.
- Read swing and pass-through terms: facilities with seasonal or operational variability need to understand volume tolerances before adding hedge coverage.
What Not To Infer
- The 0.7 Bcf/d figure is nominal Train 1 capacity, not a guarantee of constant feedgas draw.
- The national export outlook does not establish a Henry Hub trading range, Gulf Coast basis quote, or customer-specific delivered rate.
- Expected Train 2 timing can change; treat late 2026 as EIA's current expectation, not a completed operating milestone.
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Today in Energy, September 1, 2026; EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook; EIA Natural Gas Monthly. Reviewed September 3, 2026.